IMR Press / RCM / Volume 24 / Issue 12 / DOI: 10.31083/j.rcm2412356
Open Access Original Research
Performance of the Risk Scores for Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome in a Chinese Cohort
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1 Department of Cardiology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, 610041 Chengdu, Sichuan, China
2 Department of Academic Affairs, West China School of Medicine/West China Hospital, Sichuan University, 610041 Chengdu, Sichuan, China
*Correspondence: pengyongcd@126.com (Yong Peng)
Rev. Cardiovasc. Med. 2023, 24(12), 356; https://doi.org/10.31083/j.rcm2412356
Submitted: 5 April 2023 | Revised: 9 July 2023 | Accepted: 18 July 2023 | Published: 19 December 2023
(This article belongs to the Section Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes)
Copyright: © 2023 The Author(s). Published by IMR Press.
This is an open access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Abstract

Background: The prognosis of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) varies greatly, and risk assessment models can help clinicians to identify and manage high-risk patients. While the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) model is widely used, the clinical pathways for acute coronary syndromes (CPACS), which was constructed based on the Chinese population, and acute coronary treatment and intervention outcomes network (ACTION) have not yet been validated in the Chinese population. Methods: Patients with ACS who underwent coronary angiography or percutaneous coronary intervention from 2011 to 2020, were retrospectively recruited and the appropriate corresponding clinical indicators was obtained. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. The performance of the GRACE, GRACE 2.0, ACTION, thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) and CPACS risk models was evaluated and compared. Results: A total of 19,237 patients with ACS were included. Overall, in-hospital mortality was 2.2%. ACTION showed the highest accuracy in predicting discriminated risk (c-index 0.945, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.922–0.955), but the calibration was not satisfactory. GRACE and GRACE 2.0 did not significantly differ in discrimination (p = 0.1480). GRACE showed the most accurate calibration in all patients and in the subgroup analysis of all models. CPACS (c-index 0.841, 95% CI 0.821–0.861) and TIMI (c-index 0.811, 95% CI 0.787–0.835) did not outperform (c-index 0.926, 95% CI 0.911–0.940). Conclusions: In contemporary Chinese ACS patients, the ACTION risk model’s calibration is not satisfactory, although outperformed the gold standard GRACE model in predicting hospital mortality. The CPACS model developed for Chinese patients did not show better predictive performance than the GRACE model.

Keywords
acute coronary syndrome
risk prediction
in-hospital mortality
GRACE
ACTION
CPACS
Funding
2021YFS0330/Sichuan Science and Technology Program
2023NSFSC1638/Sichuan Science and Technology Program
ZH2021-101/Sichuan Provincial Cadre Health Research Project
2021HXFH061/1·3·5 project for disciplines of excellence–Clinical Research Incubation Project, West China Hospital, Sichuan University
16ZD007/Scientific Research Project of Sichuan Provincial Health Commission
Figures
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